measles: past results & live odds
measles is a monthly series of prediction markets listed on Polymarket. This page tracks the event trading now, the results of the last 9 that resolved — with the odds the market gave the winner 24 hours before close — and how often the favorite of that moment actually won.
Trading now
Measles cases in U.S. by October 31?4000+ >99% · 3900+ 99% · 4100+ 98% — resolves Nov 1, 2026 · $13K traded
- Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? — ↑4k >99%, ↑4.5k 98%
Recent results
| Event | Resolved | Winner | Winner's odds 24h before | Favorite 24h before |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measles cases in U.S. by September 30? | Oct 1, 2026 | 2900+, 3000+ +6 more | — | — |
| Measles cases in U.S. by August 31? | Sep 1, 2026 | 2800+, 2825+ +2 more | — | — |
| Measles cases in U.S. by August 31? | Aug 21, 2026 | 2400+, 2450+ +6 more | — | — |
| Measles cases in U.S. by July 31? | Aug 1, 2026 | 2200, 2300 +1 more | — | — |
| Measles cases in U.S. by May 31? | Jun 1, 2026 | 1800, 1900 +2 more | — | — |
| Measles cases in U.S. by April 30? | May 1, 2026 | 1750 and 1775 | — | — |
| Measles cases in U.S. by March 31? | Apr 1, 2026 | 1400, 1450 +3 more | — | — |
| Measles cases in U.S. by February 28? | Mar 1, 2026 | 800, 1000 +2 more | — | — |
| Measles cases in U.S. by January 31? | Feb 1, 2026 | 20, 40 +6 more | — | — |
Sources: settlements and events from Polymarket's public Gamma API; odds 24 hours before close (the earlier of the scheduled end and the actual close) from Polymarket's public CLOB price history. A “—” means the price history doesn't prove it, so that event is left out of the favorite count rather than estimated.