Next leader out: past results & live odds
Next leader out is a yearly series of prediction markets listed on Polymarket. This page tracks the event trading now, the results of the last 4 that resolved — with the odds the market gave the winner 24 hours before close — and how often the favorite of that moment actually won. Over the last 4 resolved events where the price history proves who the favorite was 24 hours before close, the favorite won 2 of 4 (50%), priced at 65% on average.
Trading now
Next leader out of power before 2027?None before 2027 40% · Netanyahu - Israel PM 26% · Sánchez - Spanish PM 18% — resolves Jan 1, 2027 · $918K traded
Recent results
| Event | Resolved | Winner | Winner's odds 24h before | Favorite 24h before |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Next leader out of power before 2027? | May 9, 2026 | Orbán - Hungary PM | 99% | Orbán - Hungary PM 99% — won |
| Next leader out of power before 2027? | Mar 1, 2026 | Khamenei - Iran Supreme Leader | 18% | Zelenskyy - Ukraine President 21% — lost |
| Next leader out of power before 2027? | Feb 23, 2026 | Schoof - Netherlands PM | 98% | Schoof - Netherlands PM 98% — won |
| Next leader out of power before 2027? | Jan 3, 2026 | Maduro - Venezuela President | 15% | Schoof - Netherlands PM 40% — lost |
Sources: settlements and events from Polymarket's public Gamma API; odds 24 hours before close (the earlier of the scheduled end and the actual close) from Polymarket's public CLOB price history. A “—” means the price history doesn't prove it, so that event is left out of the favorite count rather than estimated.