Next leader out of power before 2027?
Resolved: Maduro - Venezuela President · Jan 3, 2026
24 hours before close (Jan 2, 2026, 15:32 UTC), the market's favorite was Schoof - Netherlands PM at 40% — it lost. $1.5M traded over the life of the market. Resolution source: the rules below.
| Outcome | Odds 24h before close | Settled |
|---|---|---|
| Maduro - Venezuela President | 15% | Won · 100% |
| Schoof - Netherlands PM | 40% | 0% |
| Takaichi - Japan PM | 6% | 0% |
| Khamenei - Iran Supreme Leader | 5% | 0% |
| Netanyahu - Israel PM | 5% | 0% |
| Lecornu - France PM | 3% | 0% |
| Trump - USA President | 3% | 0% |
| Lula da Silva - Brazil President | 2% | 0% |
| Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea | 2% | 0% |
| Newsom - California Governor | <1% | 0% |
| None before 2027 | — | 0% |
| Macron - France President | — | 0% |
+11 more outcomes, all settled at 0%.
Resolution rules (source: Polymarket)
This market will resolve according to the first individual that ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criteria has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.