FOMC: past results & live odds
FOMC is a monthly series of prediction markets listed on Polymarket. This page tracks the event trading now, the results of the last 10 that resolved — with the odds the market gave the winner 24 hours before close — and how often the favorite of that moment actually won. Over the last 10 resolved events where the price history proves who the favorite was 24 hours before close, the favorite won 10 of 10 (100%), priced at 94% on average.
Trading now
Fed Decision in October?No change 84% · 25 bps increase 16% · 25 bps decrease <1% — resolves Oct 29, 2026 · $31.5M traded
- Fed Decision in December? — 25 bps increase 75%, No change 23%
- Fed Decision in January? — No change 65%, 25 bps increase 32%
Recent results
| Event | Resolved | Winner | Winner's odds 24h before | Favorite 24h before |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Decision in September? | Sep 16, 2026 | 25 bps increase | 88% | 25 bps increase 88% — won |
| Fed Decision in July? | Jul 29, 2026 | No change | 73% | No change 73% — won |
| Fed Decision in June? | Jun 17, 2026 | No change | >99% | No change >99% — won |
| Fed decision in April? | Apr 29, 2026 | No change | >99% | No change >99% — won |
| Fed decision in March? | Mar 18, 2026 | No change | >99% | No change >99% — won |
| Fed decision in January? | Jan 28, 2026 | No change | 99% | No change 99% — won |
| Fed decision in December? | Dec 10, 2025 | 25 bps decrease | 94% | 25 bps decrease 94% — won |
| Fed decision in October? | Oct 31, 2025 | 25 bps decrease | 98% | 25 bps decrease 98% — won |
| Fed decision in September? | Sep 17, 2025 | 25 bps decrease | 92% | 25 bps decrease 92% — won |
| Fed decision in July? | Jul 30, 2025 | No change | 97% | No change 97% — won |
Sources: settlements and events from Polymarket's public Gamma API; odds 24 hours before close (the earlier of the scheduled end and the actual close) from Polymarket's public CLOB price history. A “—” means the price history doesn't prove it, so that event is left out of the favorite count rather than estimated.