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Politics · 5 markets

Fed Decision in December?

Vol total$202K
Vol 24h$17K
Liquidity$571K
Resolves113d

Outcomes · most likely first

⬇️
25 bps decrease
$48K vol·-1%·7d
8.5%
chance
Yes 8¢ · No 92¢
➡️
No change
$42K vol·+8%·7d
66.5%
chance
Yes 67¢ · No 34¢
📈
25 bps increase
$36K vol·-6%·7d
25.5%
chance
Yes 26¢ · No 75¢
📊
50+ bps increase
$43K vol·+0%·7d
1.7%
chance
Yes 2¢ · No 98¢
📉
50+ bps decrease
$33K vol·-2%·7d
0.7%
chance
Yes 1¢ · No 99¢

Resolution rules

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.