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Politics · 5 markets

Fed Decision in October?

Vol total$699K
Vol 24h$12K
Liquidity$688K
Resolves71d

Outcomes · most likely first

⬇️
25 bps decrease
$213K vol·-2%·7d
4.1%
chance
Yes 4¢ · No 96¢
📈
25 bps increase
$147K vol·-1%·7d
23.5%
chance
Yes 24¢ · No 77¢
➡️
No change
$143K vol·+4%·7d
71.5%
chance
Yes 72¢ · No 28¢
📉
50+ bps decrease
$129K vol·-1%·7d
1.1%
chance
Yes 1¢ · No 99¢
📊
50+ bps increase
$67K vol·-1%·7d
0.8%
chance
Yes 1¢ · No 99¢

Resolution rules

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.