US Annual Inflation: past results & live odds
US Annual Inflation is a monthly series of prediction markets listed on Polymarket. This page tracks the event trading now, the results of the last 10 that resolved — with the odds the market gave the winner 24 hours before close — and how often the favorite of that moment actually won. Over the last 10 resolved events where the price history proves who the favorite was 24 hours before close, the favorite won 6 of 10 (60%), priced at 55% on average.
Trading now
September Inflation US - Annual3.6% 46% · 3.7% 31% · 3.5% 11% — resolves Oct 15, 2026 · $104K traded
Recent results
| Event | Resolved | Winner | Winner's odds 24h before | Favorite 24h before |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| August Inflation US - Annual | Sep 11, 2026 | 3.4% | 48% | 3.4% 48% — won |
| July Inflation US - Annual | Aug 12, 2026 | 3.4% | 42% | 3.4% 42% — won |
| June Inflation US - Annual | Jul 14, 2026 | ≤3.6% | 2% | 3.8% 50% — lost |
| May Inflation US - Annual | Jun 10, 2026 | 4.2% | 47% | 4.2% 47% — won |
| April Inflation US - Annual | May 12, 2026 | 3.8% | 35% | 3.7% 39% — lost |
| March Inflation US - Annual | Apr 10, 2026 | ≥2.8% | >99% | ≥2.8% >99% — won |
| March Inflation US - Annual (Higher Brackets) | Apr 10, 2026 | 3.3% | 43% | ≥3.4% 43% — lost |
| February Inflation US - Annual | Mar 11, 2026 | 2.4% | 43% | 2.5% 44% — lost |
| January Inflation US - Annual (Lower Brackets) | Feb 13, 2026 | 2.4% | 40% | 2.4% 40% — won |
| January Inflation US - Annual | Feb 13, 2026 | ≤2.8% | 98% | ≤2.8% 98% — won |
Sources: settlements and events from Polymarket's public Gamma API; odds 24 hours before close (the earlier of the scheduled end and the actual close) from Polymarket's public CLOB price history. A “—” means the price history doesn't prove it, so that event is left out of the favorite count rather than estimated.