Reserve Bank of Australia Decision: past results & live odds
Reserve Bank of Australia Decision is a yearly series of prediction markets listed on Polymarket. This page tracks the event trading now, the results of the last 6 that resolved — with the odds the market gave the winner 24 hours before close — and how often the favorite of that moment actually won. Over the last 6 resolved events where the price history proves who the favorite was 24 hours before close, the favorite won 6 of 6 (100%), priced at 92% on average.
Trading now
Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in NovemberNo change 84% · 25 bps increase 16% · 50+ bps increase <1% — resolves Nov 4, 2026 · $88K traded
- Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in December — No change 69%, 25 bps increase 26%
Recent results
| Event | Resolved | Winner | Winner's odds 24h before | Favorite 24h before |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in September | Sep 29, 2026 | 25 bps increase | 99% | 25 bps increase 99% — won |
| Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in August | Aug 11, 2026 | No change | >99% | No change >99% — won |
| Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in June? | Jun 16, 2026 | No Change | 99% | No Change 99% — won |
| Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in May? | May 5, 2026 | Increase | 94% | Increase 94% — won |
| Reserve Bank of Australia decision in March? | Mar 17, 2026 | Increase | 83% | Increase 83% — won |
| Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in February | Feb 3, 2026 | Increase | 78% | Increase 78% — won |
Sources: settlements and events from Polymarket's public Gamma API; odds 24 hours before close (the earlier of the scheduled end and the actual close) from Polymarket's public CLOB price history. A “—” means the price history doesn't prove it, so that event is left out of the favorite count rather than estimated.