gdp quarterly: past results & live odds
gdp quarterly is a monthly series of prediction markets listed on Polymarket. This page tracks the event trading now, the results of the last 7 that resolved — with the odds the market gave the winner 24 hours before close — and how often the favorite of that moment actually won. Over the last 7 resolved events where the price history proves who the favorite was 24 hours before close, the favorite won 5 of 7 (71%), priced at 56% on average.
Trading now
US GDP growth in Q3 2026?≥3.0% 72% · 2.5–3.0% 14% · 2.0–2.5% 10% — resolves Oct 30, 2026 · $57K traded
- GDP growth in 2026 — 2.0–2.5% 51%, >2.5% 49%
Recent results
| Event | Resolved | Winner | Winner's odds 24h before | Favorite 24h before |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US GDP growth in Q2 2026? | Jul 30, 2026 | 1.5–2.0% | 46% | 1.5–2.0% 46% — won |
| US GDP growth in Q1 2026? | Apr 30, 2026 | 2.0–2.5% | 26% | 2.0–2.5% 26% — won |
| GDP growth in 2025 | Feb 20, 2026 | 2.0–2.5% | 84% | 2.0–2.5% 84% — won |
| US GDP growth in Q4 2025? | Feb 20, 2026 | 1.0–1.5% | 1% | >3.5% 71% — lost |
| US GDP growth in Q3 2025? | Dec 23, 2025 | >3.5% | 46% | >3.5% 46% — won |
| US GDP growth in Q2 2025? | Jul 30, 2025 | >2% | 81% | >2% 81% — won |
| US GDP growth in Q1 2025? | Apr 30, 2025 | 0% - (-1%) | 16% | 1% - 0% 39% — lost |
Sources: settlements and events from Polymarket's public Gamma API; odds 24 hours before close (the earlier of the scheduled end and the actual close) from Polymarket's public CLOB price history. A “—” means the price history doesn't prove it, so that event is left out of the favorite count rather than estimated.