Economy · 6 markets

GDP growth in 2026

Vol total$60K

Vol 24h$981

Liquidity$4K

Resolves150d

Outcomes · most likely first

🎯

>2.5%

$16K vol·+2%·7d

16.5%

chance

Yes 17¢ · No 84¢

🎯

<0.5%

$8K vol·+1%·7d

4.5%

chance

Yes 5¢ · No 96¢

🎯

2.0–2.5%

$8K vol·+1%·7d

37.5%

chance

Yes 38¢ · No 63¢

🎯

1.5–2.0%

$7K vol·+3%·7d

38.1%

chance

Yes 38¢ · No 62¢

🎯

1.0–1.5%

$4K vol·+1%·7d

8.8%

chance

Yes 9¢ · No 91¢

🎯

0.5–1.0%

$17K vol·-1%·7d

1.5%

chance

Yes 2¢ · No 99¢

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.