Fed 3-Parlay: past results & live odds
Fed 3-Parlay is a daily series of prediction markets listed on Polymarket. This page tracks the event trading now, the results of the last 8 that resolved — with the odds the market gave the winner 24 hours before close — and how often the favorite of that moment actually won. Over the last 8 resolved events where the price history proves who the favorite was 24 hours before close, the favorite won 8 of 8 (100%), priced at 93% on average.
Trading now
Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)Hike–Pause–Hike 67% · Hike–Pause–Pause 22% · Hike–Hike–Hike 10% — resolves Dec 9, 2026 · $263K traded
- Fed decisions (Oct-Jan) — Pause-Hike-Pause 56%, Pause-Hike-Hike 11%
Recent results
| Event | Resolved | Winner | Winner's odds 24h before | Favorite 24h before |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed decisions (Jun-Sep) | Sep 16, 2026 | Other | 88% | Other 88% — won |
| Fed decisions (Jul–Oct) | Sep 16, 2026 | Other | 90% | Other 90% — won |
| Fed decisions (Apr-Jul) | Jul 29, 2026 | Pause–Pause–Pause | 73% | Pause–Pause–Pause 73% — won |
| Fed decisions (Mar-Jun) | Jun 17, 2026 | Pause–Pause–Pause | >99% | Pause–Pause–Pause >99% — won |
| Fed decisions (Jan-Apr) | Apr 29, 2026 | Pause–Pause–Pause | >99% | Pause–Pause–Pause >99% — won |
| Fed decisions (Dec-Mar) | Mar 18, 2026 | Cut–Pause–Pause | >99% | Cut–Pause–Pause >99% — won |
| Fed decisions (Oct-Jan) | Jan 28, 2026 | Cut–Cut–Pause | >99% | Cut–Cut–Pause >99% — won |
| Fed decisions (Sep-Dec) | Dec 10, 2025 | Cut–Cut–Cut | 94% | Cut–Cut–Cut 94% — won |
Sources: settlements and events from Polymarket's public Gamma API; odds 24 hours before close (the earlier of the scheduled end and the actual close) from Polymarket's public CLOB price history. A “—” means the price history doesn't prove it, so that event is left out of the favorite count rather than estimated.