All events
Economy · 9 markets

Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)

Vol total$577
Vol 24h$520
Liquidity$21K
Resolves98d

Outcomes · most likely first

🎯
Hike–Pause–Hike
$114 vol
23.5%
chance
Yes 24¢ · No 77¢
🎯
Pause–Pause–Hike
$96 vol
14.5%
chance
Yes 14¢ · No 86¢
🎯
Hike–Pause–Pause
$81 vol
18.0%
chance
Yes 18¢ · No 82¢
🎯
Hike–Hike–Pause
$68 vol
13.5%
chance
Yes 14¢ · No 87¢
🎯
Pause–Hike–Pause
$52 vol
9.0%
chance
Yes 9¢ · No 91¢
🎯
Hike–Hike–Hike
$50 vol
7.0%
chance
Yes 7¢ · No 93¢
⏸️
Pause–Pause–Pause
$45 vol
12.5%
chance
Yes 13¢ · No 88¢
🎯
Pause–Hike–Hike
$35 vol
7.0%
chance
Yes 7¢ · No 93¢
🌍
Other
$35 vol
6.0%
chance
Yes 6¢ · No 94¢

Resolution rules

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9. A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other". Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm

Vectorial Data aggregates publicly available market data. We are not affiliated with any exchange or venue and do not custody funds. All probabilities, prices, funding rates, and resolutions shown are sourced from public on-chain APIs and may be delayed or revised. Markets and tokens shown are speculative — past performance does not predict future results, calibration metrics describe historical accuracy and do not guarantee future calibration. Nothing on this site is financial, investment, legal, or tax advice.