Economy · Ends Dec 9

What will the Fed do with interest rates at its Sep, Oct and Dec meetings?

The Federal Reserve's rate decisions at its Sep 15-16, Oct 27-28 and Dec 8-9 meetings are combined into one outcome, and only one answer can win.

On Polymarket as “Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)”

Fed 3-Parlay: past results and how often the favorite won →

What do you think happens?

Only one of these will happen. YES = it happens · NO = it doesn't.

Hike, pause, hike

Hike, pause, pause

Hike, hike, hike

Hike, hike, pause

Any other combination

Your money, explained

Put $10 on “Hike, pause, hike” at 69% → if it happens you get $14.60 (+$4.60). If it doesn't, you lose the $10 — never more. You can sell any time before it ends, at that moment's price.

How it's decided

The Federal Reserve's FOMC statements after each of the three meetings, with the last one on Dec 9, settle it. Source ↗

Full rules (source: Polymarket)The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9. A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other". Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm

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