Elon Tweets: past results & live odds
Elon Tweets is a weekly series of prediction markets listed on Polymarket. This page tracks the event trading now, the results of the last 10 that resolved — with the odds the market gave the winner 24 hours before close — and how often the favorite of that moment actually won. Over the last 9 resolved events where the price history proves who the favorite was 24 hours before close, the favorite won 5 of 9 (56%), priced at 52% on average.
Trading now
Elon Musk # tweets October 6 - October 13, 2026?340-359 20% · 320-339 19% · 360-379 15% — resolves Oct 13, 2026 · $1.9M traded
- Elon Musk # tweets October 9 - October 16, 2026? — 200-219 14%, 220-239 14%
Recent results
| Event | Resolved | Winner | Winner's odds 24h before | Favorite 24h before |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elon Musk # tweets October 2 - October 9, 2026? | Oct 9, 2026 | 320-339 | 12% | — |
| Elon Musk # tweets September 29 - October 6, 2026? | Oct 6, 2026 | 200-219 | 2% | 240-259 47% — lost |
| Elon Musk # tweets September 25 - October 2, 2026? | Oct 2, 2026 | 220-239 | 13% | 200-219 56% — lost |
| Elon Musk # tweets September 22 - September 29, 2026? | Sep 29, 2026 | 180-199 | 55% | 180-199 55% — won |
| Elon Musk # tweets September 18 - September 25, 2026? | Sep 25, 2026 | 200-219 | 57% | 200-219 57% — won |
| Elon Musk # tweets September 15 - September 22, 2026? | Sep 22, 2026 | 220-239 | 6% | 180-199 55% — lost |
| Elon Musk # tweets September 11 - September 18, 2026? | Sep 18, 2026 | 200-219 | 47% | 200-219 47% — won |
| Elon Musk # tweets September 8 - September 15, 2026? | Sep 15, 2026 | 180-199 | 56% | 180-199 56% — won |
| Elon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026? | Sep 11, 2026 | 160-179 | 44% | 180-199 45% — lost |
| Elon Musk # tweets September 1 - September 8, 2026? | Sep 8, 2026 | 200-219 | 51% | 200-219 51% — won |
Sources: settlements and events from Polymarket's public Gamma API; odds 24 hours before close (the earlier of the scheduled end and the actual close) from Polymarket's public CLOB price history. A “—” means the price history doesn't prove it, so that event is left out of the favorite count rather than estimated.