Richest person: past results & live odds
Richest person is a monthly series of prediction markets listed on Polymarket. This page tracks the event trading now, the results of the last 3 that resolved — with the odds the market gave the winner 24 hours before close — and how often the favorite of that moment actually won. Over the last 3 resolved events where the price history proves who the favorite was 24 hours before close, the favorite won 3 of 3 (100%), priced at >99% on average.
Trading now
Richest person on December 31, 2026?Elon Musk 97% · Warren Buffett 1% · Jeff Bezos <1% — resolves Jan 3, 2027 · $1.9M traded
Recent results
| Event | Resolved | Winner | Winner's odds 24h before | Favorite 24h before |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richest person on March 31? | Apr 1, 2026 | Elon Musk | >99% | Elon Musk >99% — won |
| Richest person on December 31? | Jan 1, 2026 | Elon Musk | >99% | Elon Musk >99% — won |
| Richest person on September 30? | Oct 1, 2025 | Elon Musk | >99% | Elon Musk >99% — won |
Sources: settlements and events from Polymarket's public Gamma API; odds 24 hours before close (the earlier of the scheduled end and the actual close) from Polymarket's public CLOB price history. A “—” means the price history doesn't prove it, so that event is left out of the favorite count rather than estimated.