How many 7.0 or above earthquakes: past results & live odds
How many 7.0 or above earthquakes is a yearly series of prediction markets listed on Polymarket. This page tracks the event trading now, the results of the last 2 that resolved — with the odds the market gave the winner 24 hours before close — and how often the favorite of that moment actually won.
Trading now
How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?17–19 44% · 14–16 38% · 11–13 9% — resolves Jan 8, 2027 · $1.5M traded
Recent results
| Event | Resolved | Winner | Winner's odds 24h before | Favorite 24h before |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| How many 7.0 or above earthquakes by June 30? (Higher Strikes) | Jul 1, 2026 | 10 | 88% | 10 88% — won |
| How many 7.0 or above earthquakes by December 31? | Jan 1, 2026 | 2 | 94% | 2 94% — won |
Sources: settlements and events from Polymarket's public Gamma API; odds 24 hours before close (the earlier of the scheduled end and the actual close) from Polymarket's public CLOB price history. A “—” means the price history doesn't prove it, so that event is left out of the favorite count rather than estimated.