How many 7.0 or above earthquakes by December 31?
Resolved: 2 · Jan 1, 2026
24 hours before close (Dec 30, 2025, 00:00 UTC), the market's favorite was 2 at 94% — it won. $705K traded over the life of the market. Resolution source: the rules below.
| Outcome | Odds 24h before close | Settled |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | 94% | Won · 100% |
| 3 | 5% | 0% |
| 4 | <1% | 0% |
| 5 | <1% | 0% |
| >5 | <1% | 0% |
| 0 | 0% | 0% |
| 1 | 0% | 0% |
Resolution rules (source: Polymarket)
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between October 13, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.