Climate · 5 markets

How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?

Vol total$1.4M

Vol 24h$239

Liquidity$112K

Resolves134d

Outcomes · most likely first

🎯

11–13

$416K vol·-10%·7d

8.5%

chance

Yes 9¢ · No 92¢

🎯

17–19

$213K vol·+9%·7d

36.0%

chance

Yes 36¢ · No 64¢

🎯

14–16

$188K vol·+3%·7d

47.5%

chance

Yes 48¢ · No 53¢

🎯

20+

$68K vol·+1%·7d

10.3%

chance

Yes 10¢ · No 90¢

🎯

8–10

$160K vol·-1%·7d

0.1%

chance

Yes 0¢ · No 100¢

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.