Climate · Ends Jan 7

How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?

17–19 is the favorite at 44% (up 3.5 points in 24 hours), then 14–16 at 37% and 11–13 at 9%.

How many 7.0 or above earthquakes: past results and how often the favorite won →

What do you think happens?

Only one of these will happen. YES = it happens · NO = it doesn't.

17–19▲ 4 today

14–16▼ 20 today

11–13▼ 10 today

20+

Your money, explained

Put $10 on “17–19” at 44% → if it happens you get $22.73 (+$12.73). If it doesn't, you lose the $10 — never more. You can sell any time before it ends, at that moment's price.

How it's decided

It's settled by the official result (earthquake.usgs.gov) when the question closes on Jan 7, 2027, US Eastern time. Source ↗

Full rules (source: Polymarket)This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.

$1.5M traded since it opened · $391 today