Elon Tweets 48H: past results & live odds
Elon Tweets 48H is a daily series of prediction markets listed on Polymarket. This page tracks the event trading now, the results of the last 10 that resolved — with the odds the market gave the winner 24 hours before close — and how often the favorite of that moment actually won. Over the last 10 resolved events where the price history proves who the favorite was 24 hours before close, the favorite won 8 of 10 (80%), priced at 70% on average.
Trading now
Elon Musk # tweets October 8 - October 10, 2026?90-114 71% · 65-89 24% · 115-139 5% — resolves Oct 10, 2026 · $625K traded
- Elon Musk # tweets October 10 - October 12, 2026? — 40-64 45%, 65-89 31%
Recent results
| Event | Resolved | Winner | Winner's odds 24h before | Favorite 24h before |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elon Musk # tweets October 5 - October 7, 2026? | Oct 7, 2026 | 40-64 | 21% | <40 76% — lost |
| Elon Musk # tweets October 3 - October 5, 2026? | Oct 5, 2026 | 65-89 | 31% | 40-64 65% — lost |
| Elon Musk # tweets October 1 - October 3, 2026? | Oct 3, 2026 | 65-89 | 70% | 65-89 70% — won |
| Elon Musk # tweets September 28 - September 30, 2026? | Sep 30, 2026 | 40-64 | 73% | 40-64 73% — won |
| Elon Musk # tweets September 26 - September 28, 2026? | Sep 28, 2026 | 40-64 | 70% | 40-64 70% — won |
| Elon Musk # tweets September 24 - September 26, 2026? | Sep 26, 2026 | 40-64 | 77% | 40-64 77% — won |
| Elon Musk # tweets September 21 - September 23, 2026? | Sep 23, 2026 | 65-89 | 67% | 65-89 67% — won |
| Elon Musk # tweets September 19 - September 21, 2026? | Sep 21, 2026 | 40-64 | 69% | 40-64 69% — won |
| Elon Musk # tweets September 17 - September 19, 2026? | Sep 19, 2026 | 40-64 | 68% | 40-64 68% — won |
| Elon Musk # tweets September 14 - September 16, 2026? | Sep 16, 2026 | 40-64 | 67% | 40-64 67% — won |
Sources: settlements and events from Polymarket's public Gamma API; odds 24 hours before close (the earlier of the scheduled end and the actual close) from Polymarket's public CLOB price history. A “—” means the price history doesn't prove it, so that event is left out of the favorite count rather than estimated.