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ECB Interest Rates: past results & live odds

ECB Interest Rates is a yearly series of prediction markets listed on Polymarket. This page tracks the event trading now, the results of the last 10 that resolved — with the odds the market gave the winner 24 hours before close — and how often the favorite of that moment actually won. Over the last 10 resolved events where the price history proves who the favorite was 24 hours before close, the favorite won 10 of 10 (100%), priced at 99% on average.

Trading now

ECB Interest Rates: October 2026

No change 94% · 25 bps increase 5% · 50+ bps increase <1% — resolves Oct 30, 2026 · $516K traded

Recent results

EventResolvedWinnerWinner's odds 24h beforeFavorite 24h before
ECB Interest Rates: September 2026Sep 10, 202625 bps increase>99%25 bps increase >99% — won
ECB Interest Rates: July 2026Jul 23, 2026No change>99%No change >99% — won
ECB Interest Rates: June 2026Jun 11, 202625 bps Increase99%25 bps Increase 99% — won
ECB Interest Rates: April 2026Apr 30, 2026No change99%No change 99% — won
ECB Interest Rates: March 2026Mar 19, 2026No change>99%No change >99% — won
ECB Interest Rates: February 2026Feb 5, 2026No change>99%No change >99% — won
ECB Interest Rates: December 2025Dec 18, 2025No change>99%No change >99% — won
ECB Interest Rates: October 2025Oct 30, 2025No change98%No change 98% — won
ECB Interest Rates: September 2025Sep 11, 2025No change98%No change 98% — won
ECB Interest Rates: March 2025Mar 6, 202525 bps decrease99%25 bps decrease 99% — won

Sources: settlements and events from Polymarket's public Gamma API; odds 24 hours before close (the earlier of the scheduled end and the actual close) from Polymarket's public CLOB price history. A “—” means the price history doesn't prove it, so that event is left out of the favorite count rather than estimated.