Bitcoin Neg Risk Weekly: past results & live odds
Bitcoin Neg Risk Weekly is a weekly series of prediction markets listed on Polymarket. This page tracks the event trading now, the results of the last 10 that resolved — with the odds the market gave the winner 24 hours before close — and how often the favorite of that moment actually won. Over the last 9 resolved events where the price history proves who the favorite was 24 hours before close, the favorite won 6 of 9 (67%), priced at 53% on average.
Trading now
Bitcoin price on October 10?82,000-84,000 88% · 80,000-82,000 9% · 84,000-86,000 3% — resolves Oct 10, 2026 · $87K traded
- Bitcoin price on October 11? — 82,000-84,000 66%, 80,000-82,000 22%
- Bitcoin price on October 12? — 82,000-84,000 45%, 80,000-82,000 28%
- Bitcoin price on October 13? — 82,000-84,000 36%, 80,000-82,000 27%
- Bitcoin price on October 14? — 82,000-84,000 30%, 80,000-82,000 25%
Recent results
| Event | Resolved | Winner | Winner's odds 24h before | Favorite 24h before |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin price on October 9? | Oct 9, 2026 | 82,000-84,000 | 49% | 82,000-84,000 49% — won |
| Bitcoin price on October 8? | Oct 8, 2026 | 80,000-82,000 | 23% | 82,000-84,000 49% — lost |
| Bitcoin price on October 7? | Oct 7, 2026 | 82,000-84,000 | 2% | — |
| Bitcoin price on October 6? | Oct 6, 2026 | 84,000-86,000 | 48% | 84,000-86,000 48% — won |
| Bitcoin price on October 5? | Oct 5, 2026 | 84,000-86,000 | 60% | 84,000-86,000 60% — won |
| Bitcoin price on October 4? | Oct 4, 2026 | 84,000-86,000 | 80% | 84,000-86,000 80% — won |
| Bitcoin price on October 3? | Oct 3, 2026 | 84,000-86,000 | 55% | 84,000-86,000 55% — won |
| Bitcoin price on October 2? | Oct 2, 2026 | 84,000-86,000 | 42% | 84,000-86,000 42% — won |
| Bitcoin price on October 1? | Oct 1, 2026 | 84,000-86,000 | 37% | 82,000-84,000 47% — lost |
| Bitcoin price on September 30? | Sep 30, 2026 | 84,000-86,000 | 38% | 82,000-84,000 48% — lost |
Sources: settlements and events from Polymarket's public Gamma API; odds 24 hours before close (the earlier of the scheduled end and the actual close) from Polymarket's public CLOB price history. A “—” means the price history doesn't prove it, so that event is left out of the favorite count rather than estimated.