Politics · Ends Dec 31

Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026?

Yes if the U.S. begins a military offensive meant to take control of any part of Venezuela between Nov 3, 2025 and Dec 31, 2026.

On Polymarket as “Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...?”

What do you think?

Yes = it happens · No = it doesn't

1%chance of Yes, according to the market

Your money, explained

Put $10 on Yes at 1% → if it happens you get $689.66 (+$679.66). If it doesn't, you lose the $10 — never more. You can sell any time before it ends, at that moment's price.

How it's decided

A consensus of credible sources decides, with the period ending Dec 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.

Full rules (source: Polymarket)This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela between September 6 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Venezuela or the United States as of September 6, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

$14.3M traded since it opened · $19K today