Politics · Ends Dec 31

Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026?

The market gives “Yes” a 2% chance (down 0.1 points in 24 hours).

What do you think?

Yes = it happens · No = it doesn't

2%chance of Yes, according to the market

Your money, explained

Put $10 on Yes at 2% → if it happens you get $476.19 (+$466.19). If it doesn't, you lose the $10 — never more. You can sell any time before it ends, at that moment's price.

How it's decided

It's settled by the official result when the question closes on Dec 31, 2026, US Eastern time.

Full rules (source: Polymarket)This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Mexican land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Mexico or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

$262K traded since it opened · $6K today