Politics · binary

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Vol total$71.2M

Vol 24h$330K

Liquidity$1.2M

Resolves90d

Your bet$

Every card is one question. Tap Yes if you think it happens, No if you don't. Each button shows the chance the market gives it, what your $10 becomes if you're right (stake included), and the profit. Wrong = you lose your $10, never more. No is everything that isn't Yes.

Outcomes · most likely first1 question

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?most traded

YESIt happensNOIt doesn't

Settles: Official result · closes Jan 1, 2027.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.