Tech & AI · Ends Dec 31

Will Tesla release Optimus by...?

Most likely: December 31 at 12% (up 5.1 points in 24 hours).

What do you think?

Yes = it happens · No = it doesn't

12%chance of Yes, according to the market▲ 5 today

Your money, explained

Put $10 on Yes at 12% → if it happens you get $81.30 (+$71.30). If it doesn't, you lose the $10 — never more. You can sell any time before it ends, at that moment's price.

How it's decided

It's settled by the official result (..) when the question closes on Dec 31, 2026, US Eastern time.

Full rules (source: Polymarket)This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla releases a humanoid, bipedal robot (such as Optimus) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying product is a humanoid, bipedal robot intended for consumer use and newly introduced. Non-humanoid robotics, accessories, internal factory deployments, employee-only programs, and partner/enterprise pilots do not qualify. To be considered “released,” the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the timeframe via an official Tesla consumer channel (e.g., tesla.com) with a live checkout or paid preorder/deposit. Announcements, unveilings, demos, or waitlists with “register interest” pages without payment do not suffice. Availability in any region counts if it is open to the general public. The primary resolution source will be official statements and materials from Tesla.

$133K traded since it opened · $2K today