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Politics · binary

Will Russia invade a NATO country by...?

Vol total$5.4M
Vol 24h$6K
Liquidity$79K
Resolves0d

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Prediction

Will Russia invade a NATO country by...?

Your pick: Yes — each share pays $1 if Yes wins.

Bets from $1 · deposits start at $3.

SideYes
Price$0.0500
Shares (est)100.00
Spend$5.00
Capital back$5.00
Profit if Yes wins+$95.00
If Yes wins pays$100.00
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Price history-0.50% · 1W
3%4%5%6%8%Aug 13Aug 15Aug 16Aug 18Aug 19Aug 20

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any NATO country between May 28 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by NATO member states or Russia as of May 28, 2025, will be considered the sovereign territory of those countries. Hybrid or “grey zone” operations conducted by unmarked personnel will qualify if they are confirmed to be Russian operatives and are intended to establish de facto control over territory, as occurred in Crimea (2014) or Donbas (2014–2022). The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.