All predictions

Climate · Ends Dec 31
Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
The market gives “Yes” a 2% chance (down 0.4 points in 24 hours).
What do you think?
Yes = it happens · No = it doesn't
2%chance of Yes, according to the market
Your money, explained
Put $10 on Yes at 2% → if it happens you get $454.55 (+$444.55). If it doesn't, you lose the $10 — never more. You can sell any time before it ends, at that moment's price.
How it's decided
It's settled by the official result (nhc.noaa.gov) when the question closes on Dec 31, 2026, US Eastern time. Source ↗
Full rules (source: Polymarket)For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
$144K traded since it opened · $1K today
