Every card is one question. Tap Yes if you think it happens, No if you don't. Each button shows the chance the market gives it, what your $10 becomes if you're right (stake included), and the profit. Wrong = you lose your $10, never more. No is everything that isn't Yes.
Outcomes · most likely first28 questions
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027?most traded
YESIt happensNOIt doesn't
Settles: Official result · closes Jan 1, 2027.
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk before 2027?
YESIt happensNOIt doesn't
Settles: Official result · closes Jan 1, 2027.
Will Trump pardon Ryan Salame before 2027?
YESIt happensNOIt doesn't
Settles: Official result · closes Jan 1, 2027.
Will Trump pardon Diddy before 2027?
YESIt happensNOIt doesn't
Settles: Official result · closes Jan 1, 2027.
Will Trump pardon Martin Shkreli before 2027?
YESIt happensNOIt doesn't
Settles: Official result · closes Jan 1, 2027.
Will Trump pardon Derek Chauvin before 2027?
YESIt happensNOIt doesn't
Settles: Official result · closes Jan 1, 2027.
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell before 2027?
YESIt happensNOIt doesn't
Settles: Official result · closes Jan 1, 2027.
Will Trump pardon Do Kwon before 2027?
YESIt happensNOIt doesn't
Settles: Official result · closes Jan 1, 2027.
Will Trump pardon Keonne Rodriguez before 2027?
YESIt happensNOIt doesn't
Settles: Official result · closes Jan 1, 2027.
Will Trump pardon Donald Brodie before 2027?
YESIt happensNOIt doesn't
Settles: Official result · closes Jan 1, 2027.
Will Trump pardon Himself before 2027?
YESIt happensNOIt doesn't
Settles: Official result · closes Jan 1, 2027.
Will Trump pardon Roger Stone before 2027?
YESIt happensNOIt doesn't
Settles: Official result · closes Jan 1, 2027.
Will Trump pardon Nicolas Maduro before 2027?
YESIt happensNOIt doesn't
Settles: Official result · closes Jan 1, 2027.
Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon before 2027?
YESIt happensNOIt doesn't
Settles: Official result · closes Jan 1, 2027.
Will Trump pardon Matt Gaetz before 2027?
YESIt happensNOIt doesn't
Settles: Official result · closes Jan 1, 2027.
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden before 2027?
YESIt happensNOIt doesn't
Settles: Official result · closes Jan 1, 2027.
Will Trump pardon Joe Exotic "The Tiger King" before 2027?
YESIt happensNOIt doesn't
Settles: Official result · closes Jan 1, 2027.
Will Trump pardon Young Thug before 2027?
YESIt happensNOIt doesn't
Settles: Official result · closes Jan 1, 2027.
Will Trump pardon Julian Assange before 2027?
YESIt happensNOIt doesn't
Settles: Official result · closes Jan 1, 2027.
Will Trump pardon Elizabeth Holmes before 2027?
YESIt happensNOIt doesn't
Settles: Official result · closes Jan 1, 2027.
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden before 2027?
YESIt happensNOIt doesn't
Settles: Official result · closes Jan 1, 2027.
Will Trump pardon Stefan Brodie before 2027?
YESIt happensNOIt doesn't
Settles: Official result · closes Jan 1, 2027.
Will Trump pardon Roger Ver before 2027?
YESIt happensNOIt doesn't
Settles: Official result · closes Jan 1, 2027.
Will Trump pardon Antoine Massey before 2027?
YESIt happensNOIt doesn't
Settles: Official result · closes Jan 1, 2027.
Will Trump pardon Eric Adams before 2027?
YESIt happensNOIt doesn't
Settles: Official result · closes Jan 1, 2027.
Will Trump pardon Andrew Tate before 2027?
YESIt happensNOIt doesn't
Settles: Official result · closes Jan 1, 2027.
Will Trump pardon Bob Menendez before 2027?
YESIt happensNOIt doesn't
Settles: Official result · closes Jan 1, 2027.
Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny before 2027?decided · No
YESIt happensNOIt doesn't
Settles: Official result · closes Jan 1, 2027.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.