All events
Politics · 19 markets

Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?

Vol total$220K
Vol 24h$8K
Liquidity$53K
Resolves135d

Outcomes · most likely first

🇴🇲
Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi
$21K vol
19.5%
chance
Yes 20¢ · No 81¢
🇮🇷
Mojtaba Khamenei
$20K vol
5.1%
chance
Yes 5¢ · No 95¢
🇺🇸
J.D. Vance
$16K vol
38.0%
chance
Yes 38¢ · No 62¢
🇶🇦
Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani
$15K vol
27.5%
chance
Yes 28¢ · No 73¢
🇮🇷
Kazem Gharibabadi
$15K vol
25.5%
chance
Yes 26¢ · No 75¢
🇮🇷
Majid Takht-Ravanchi
$15K vol
23.5%
chance
Yes 24¢ · No 77¢
🇮🇷
Masoud Pezeshkian
$14K vol
15.0%
chance
Yes 15¢ · No 85¢
🇦🇷
Rafael Grossi
$13K vol
15.5%
chance
Yes 16¢ · No 85¢
🇺🇸
Marco Rubio
$13K vol
15.5%
chance
Yes 16¢ · No 85¢
🇺🇸
Steve Witkoff
$12K vol
35.5%
chance
Yes 36¢ · No 65¢
🇮🇷
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf
$12K vol
30.5%
chance
Yes 31¢ · No 70¢
🇮🇷
Esmail Qaani
$11K vol
8.1%
chance
Yes 8¢ · No 92¢
🇺🇸
Jared Kushner
$10K vol
36.0%
chance
Yes 36¢ · No 64¢
🇺🇸
Pete Hegseth
$10K vol
9.0%
chance
Yes 9¢ · No 91¢
🇵🇰
Ishaq Dar
$8K vol
20.5%
chance
Yes 21¢ · No 80¢
🇮🇷
Abbas Araghchi
$7K vol
37.0%
chance
Yes 37¢ · No 63¢
🎯
Nick Stewart
$5K vol
19.5%
chance
Yes 20¢ · No 81¢
🇮🇷
Ahmad Vahidi
$2K vol
4.7%
chance
Yes 5¢ · No 95¢
🇺🇸
Donald Trump
$2K vol
5.3%
chance
Yes 5¢ · No 95¢

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments. Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time. Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round. Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating. If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.