Will no company have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?most traded
YESIt happensNOIt doesn't
Settles: Official result · closes Jan 1, 2027.
Tech & AI · 9 markets
Which company's AI will first hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?
Vol total$132K
Vol 24h$1K
Liquidity$20K
Resolves88d
Your bet
Every card is one question. Tap Yes if you think it happens, No if you don't. Each button shows the chance the market gives it, what your $10 becomes if you're right (stake included), and the profit. Wrong = you lose your $10, never more. No is everything that isn't Yes.
Outcomes · most likely first9 questions
Will Anthropic be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?
YESIt happensNOIt doesn't
Settles: Official result · closes Jan 1, 2027.
Will OpenAI be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?
YESIt happensNOIt doesn't
Settles: Official result · closes Jan 1, 2027.
Will Google be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?
YESIt happensNOIt doesn't
Settles: Official result · closes Jan 1, 2027.
Will DeepSeek be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?decided · No
YESIt happensNOIt doesn't
Settles: Official result · closes Jan 1, 2027.
Will Alibaba be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?decided · No
YESIt happensNOIt doesn't
Settles: Official result · closes Jan 1, 2027.
Will xAI be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?decided · No
YESIt happensNOIt doesn't
Settles: Official result · closes Jan 1, 2027.
Will Z.ai be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?decided · No
YESIt happensNOIt doesn't
Settles: Official result · closes Jan 1, 2027.
Will Mistral be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?decided · No
YESIt happensNOIt doesn't
Settles: Official result · closes Jan 1, 2027.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market. If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026". If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.