All events
Tech & AI · 21 markets

Which company has the best AI model end of September?

Vol total$335K
Vol 24h$10K
Liquidity$563K
Resolves43d

Outcomes · most likely first

🤖
Anthropic
$47K vol·+6%·7d
90.0%
chance
Yes 90¢ · No 10¢
🚀
SpaceXAI
$19K vol·+3%·7d
3.6%
chance
Yes 4¢ · No 96¢
🧠
OpenAI
$17K vol·-0%·7d
3.3%
chance
Yes 3¢ · No 97¢
🔍
Google
$16K vol·-1%·7d
2.1%
chance
Yes 2¢ · No 98¢
🪟
Microsoft
$20K vol·+0%·7d
0.2%
chance
Yes 0¢ · No 100¢
🛍️
Alibaba
$19K vol·+0%·7d
0.3%
chance
Yes 0¢ · No 100¢
🔷
DeepSeek
$18K vol
0.3%
chance
Yes 0¢ · No 100¢
📦
Amazon
$15K vol
0.1%
chance
Yes 0¢ · No 100¢
🇨🇳
MiniMax
$14K vol·-0%·7d
0.1%
chance
Yes 0¢ · No 100¢
🎯
Thinky
$14K vol·-0%·7d
0.1%
chance
Yes 0¢ · No 100¢
🇨🇳
StepFun
$14K vol·-0%·7d
0.1%
chance
Yes 0¢ · No 100¢
👥
Meta
$14K vol·+0%·7d
0.9%
chance
Yes 1¢ · No 99¢
🟢
Nvidia
$14K vol
0.1%
chance
Yes 0¢ · No 100¢
🔎
Baidu
$13K vol
0.1%
chance
Yes 0¢ · No 100¢
🤖
Z.ai
$13K vol·-0%·7d
0.3%
chance
Yes 0¢ · No 100¢
🌙
Moonshot
$13K vol·-0%·7d
0.1%
chance
Yes 0¢ · No 100¢
🌪️
Mistral
$12K vol·-0%·7d
0.1%
chance
Yes 0¢ · No 100¢
📱
ByteDance
$12K vol
0.1%
chance
Yes 0¢ · No 100¢
🇨🇳
Xiaomi
$12K vol
0.1%
chance
Yes 0¢ · No 100¢
🍜
Meituan
$10K vol·-0%·7d
0.1%
chance
Yes 0¢ · No 100¢
🇨🇳
Tencent
$7K vol
0.1%
chance
Yes 0¢ · No 100¢

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".