All events
Tech & AI · 21 markets

Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On)

Vol total$44K
Vol 24h$17K
Liquidity$34K
Resolves42d

Outcomes · most likely first

🤖
Anthropic
$22K vol·+2%·7d
79.5%
chance
Yes 80¢ · No 21¢
🔍
Google
$2K vol·+3%·7d
10.0%
chance
Yes 10¢ · No 90¢
🧠
OpenAI
$2K vol·+1%·7d
6.0%
chance
Yes 6¢ · No 94¢
👥
Meta
$2K vol·+5%·7d
6.2%
chance
Yes 6¢ · No 94¢
🛍️
Alibaba
$1K vol·-2%·7d
2.9%
chance
Yes 3¢ · No 97¢
🇨🇳
Tencent
$2K vol·-1%·7d
0.1%
chance
Yes 0¢ · No 100¢
🌙
Moonshot
$1K vol·-2%·7d
1.8%
chance
Yes 2¢ · No 98¢
🇨🇳
Xiaomi
$1K vol·-3%·7d
0.3%
chance
Yes 0¢ · No 100¢
🌪️
Mistral
$1K vol·-1%·7d
0.1%
chance
Yes 0¢ · No 100¢
🇨🇳
StepFun
$1K vol·-6%·7d
0.3%
chance
Yes 0¢ · No 100¢
🎯
Thinky
$1K vol·-5%·7d
0.1%
chance
Yes 0¢ · No 100¢
🔷
DeepSeek
$945 vol·-5%·7d
0.1%
chance
Yes 0¢ · No 100¢
🤖
Z.ai
$931 vol·-4%·7d
0.1%
chance
Yes 0¢ · No 100¢
🍜
Meituan
$930 vol·-5%·7d
0.1%
chance
Yes 0¢ · No 100¢
🚀
SpaceXAI
$792 vol·-0%·7d
0.1%
chance
Yes 0¢ · No 100¢
🔎
Baidu
$769 vol·-3%·7d
0.1%
chance
Yes 0¢ · No 100¢
🪟
Microsoft
$762 vol·-4%·7d
0.1%
chance
Yes 0¢ · No 100¢
🟢
Nvidia
$699 vol·-1%·7d
0.1%
chance
Yes 0¢ · No 100¢
📱
ByteDance
$436 vol·-0%·7d
0.1%
chance
Yes 0¢ · No 100¢
🇨🇳
MiniMax
$436 vol·-0%·7d
0.1%
chance
Yes 0¢ · No 100¢
📦
Amazon
$436 vol·-0%·7d
0.1%
chance
Yes 0¢ · No 100¢

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".