All events
Tech & AI · 14 markets

Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?

Vol total$128K
Vol 24h$336
Liquidity$81K
Resolves133d

Outcomes · most likely first

🧠
OpenAI
$23K vol·-2%·7d
31.5%
chance
Yes 32¢ · No 69¢
🔷
DeepSeek
$21K vol·-1%·7d
6.5%
chance
Yes 7¢ · No 94¢
🔍
Google
$17K vol·-1%·7d
18.5%
chance
Yes 19¢ · No 82¢
👥
Meta
$15K vol·-1%·7d
11.5%
chance
Yes 12¢ · No 89¢
🌪️
Mistral
$10K vol·-1%·7d
2.9%
chance
Yes 3¢ · No 97¢
xAI
$9K vol·-1%·7d
12.5%
chance
Yes 13¢ · No 88¢
🌙
Moonshot
$9K vol·-1%·7d
9.5%
chance
Yes 10¢ · No 91¢
🪟
Microsoft
$5K vol·-3%·7d
4.5%
chance
Yes 5¢ · No 96¢
📦
Amazon
$5K vol·-4%·7d
3.1%
chance
Yes 3¢ · No 97¢
🛍️
Alibaba
$3K vol
12.5%
chance
Yes 13¢ · No 88¢
🍜
Meituan
$3K vol·-2%·7d
3.6%
chance
Yes 4¢ · No 96¢
📱
ByteDance
$3K vol
7.5%
chance
Yes 8¢ · No 93¢
🤖
Z.ai
$3K vol
8.5%
chance
Yes 9¢ · No 92¢
🔎
Baidu
$2K vol
6.5%
chance
Yes 7¢ · No 94¢

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.