Tech & AI · 13 markets

Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?

Vol total$201K

Vol 24h$2K

Liquidity$223K

Resolves89d

Your bet$

Every card is one question. Tap Yes if you think it happens, No if you don't. Each button shows the chance the market gives it, what your $10 becomes if you're right (stake included), and the profit. Wrong = you lose your $10, never more. No is everything that isn't Yes.

Outcomes · most likely first13 questions

Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?most traded

YESIt happensNOIt doesn't

Settles: Official result · closes Jan 1, 2027.

Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?

YESIt happensNOIt doesn't

Settles: Official result · closes Jan 1, 2027.

Will Meta have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?

YESIt happensNOIt doesn't

Settles: Official result · closes Jan 1, 2027.

Will Moonshot have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?

YESIt happensNOIt doesn't

Settles: Official result · closes Jan 1, 2027.

Will Mistral have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?

YESIt happensNOIt doesn't

Settles: Official result · closes Jan 1, 2027.

Will xAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?

YESIt happensNOIt doesn't

Settles: Official result · closes Jan 1, 2027.

Will Amazon have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?

YESIt happensNOIt doesn't

Settles: Official result · closes Jan 1, 2027.

Will Z.ai have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?

YESIt happensNOIt doesn't

Settles: Official result · closes Jan 1, 2027.

Will Meituan have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?

YESIt happensNOIt doesn't

Settles: Official result · closes Jan 1, 2027.

Will Microsoft have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?

YESIt happensNOIt doesn't

Settles: Official result · closes Jan 1, 2027.

Will Alibaba have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?

YESIt happensNOIt doesn't

Settles: Official result · closes Jan 1, 2027.

Will Baidu have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?

YESIt happensNOIt doesn't

Settles: Official result · closes Jan 1, 2027.

Will ByteDance have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?decided · No

YESIt happensNOIt doesn't

Settles: Official result · closes Jan 1, 2027.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.