All events
Culture · 23 markets

Which artists will have a Billboard #1 song this year?

Vol total$165K
Vol 24h$366
Liquidity$4K
Resolves132d

Outcomes · most likely first

🇺🇸
Billie Eilish
$40K vol·-4%·7d
23.5%
chance
Yes 24¢ · No 77¢
🇺🇸
Doja Cat
$11K vol·+2%·7d
14.6%
chance
Yes 15¢ · No 85¢
🎯
Frank Ocean
$9K vol·+3%·7d
14.4%
chance
Yes 14¢ · No 86¢
🎯
Jack Harlow
$9K vol·-7%·7d
10.3%
chance
Yes 10¢ · No 90¢
🎯
Playboi Carti
$8K vol·-1%·7d
24.5%
chance
Yes 25¢ · No 76¢
🎯
Future
$7K vol·-7%·7d
5.1%
chance
Yes 5¢ · No 95¢
🎯
Travis Scott
$5K vol
12.5%
chance
Yes 13¢ · No 88¢
🇨🇦
The Weeknd
$5K vol·+3%·7d
31.5%
chance
Yes 32¢ · No 69¢
🇺🇸
Kendrick Lamar
$5K vol·-11%·7d
33.0%
chance
Yes 33¢ · No 67¢
🎯
Mariah Carey
$3K vol·+3%·7d
72.0%
chance
Yes 72¢ · No 28¢
🇺🇸
Luke Combs
$3K vol·-9%·7d
9.0%
chance
Yes 9¢ · No 91¢
🎯
A$AP Rocky
$2K vol·+0%·7d
5.3%
chance
Yes 5¢ · No 95¢
🇧🇧
Rihanna
$1K vol·-9%·7d
10.9%
chance
Yes 11¢ · No 89¢
🇺🇸
Zach Bryan
$1K vol·+2%·7d
14.1%
chance
Yes 14¢ · No 86¢
🇺🇸
Kanye West
$866 vol·-0%·7d
2.9%
chance
Yes 3¢ · No 97¢
🎯
Lil Baby
$724 vol·-42%·7d
5.7%
chance
Yes 6¢ · No 94¢
🇬🇧
Ed Sheeran
$674 vol·-2%·7d
2.9%
chance
Yes 3¢ · No 97¢
🇺🇸
Tyler, The Creator
$589 vol·-2%·7d
13.0%
chance
Yes 13¢ · No 87¢
🇺🇸
SZA
$570 vol·-31%·7d
10.0%
chance
Yes 10¢ · No 90¢
🇺🇸
Sabrina Carpenter
$492 vol·-21%·7d
31.5%
chance
Yes 32¢ · No 69¢
🇺🇸
Post Malone
$357 vol·-19%·7d
27.0%
chance
Yes 27¢ · No 73¢
🇺🇸
Morgan Wallen
$352 vol·-22%·7d
31.0%
chance
Yes 31¢ · No 69¢
🎯
Peso Pluma
$0 vol
50.5%
chance
Yes 51¢ · No 50¢

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any song by the listed artist is the number 1 song in any official weekly Billboard Hot 100 songs chart released for a data collection reference period entirely between January 1 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Any song released with the listed artist as a primary artist will count, including songs released before 2026. If a song is released jointly by multiple artists credited equally as primary artists, it will count for all of them. Features, writing credits, production credits, or other forms of non-primary contributions to a song will not count. Artist attribution will be determined solely by the artists displayed by Billboard on the relevant chart. Billboard updates its Hot 100 songs chart each Tuesday (with adjusted release schedules on some holiday weeks), reflecting data collected in the previous week (Friday-Thursday). Each Billboard chart is then titled “Week of (date of the upcoming Saturday)”. The first Billboard Hot 100 song chart relevant to this market will be the chart titled “Week of January 17, 2026” for a data collection reference period of January 2-8, 2026. The final Billboard Hot 100 song chart relevant to this market will be the Chart titled “Week of January 9, 2027” for a data collection reference period of December 25-31, 2026. Updates or revisions made within this market’s timeframe to the #1-ranked song on previously published Billboard Hot 100 charts will be considered; however, such updates will not disqualify a previously published Billboard Hot 100 #1 song from counting. If a Billboard Hot 100 #1 song is revised after initial publication, both the originally published #1 song and the revised #1 song will count for this market. Updates or revisions made after the release of the final Billboard Hot 100 song chart relevant to this market will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be the weekly Billboard Hot 100 songs charts published each week at https://www.billboard.com/charts/hot-100/ and through other official Billboard channels.