🎯Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be 2.5 or above?most traded
YESIt happensNOIt doesn't
Settles: Official result · closes Apr 1, 2027.
Climate · 5 markets
What will the peak RONI be for the 2026–27 El Niño?
Vol total$65K
Vol 24h$3K
Liquidity$12K
Resolves179d
Your bet
Every card is one question. Tap Yes if you think it happens, No if you don't. Each button shows the chance the market gives it, what your $10 becomes if you're right (stake included), and the profit. Wrong = you lose your $10, never more. No is everything that isn't Yes.
Outcomes · most likely first5 questions
🎯Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be at least 2.25 but below 2.5?
YESIt happensNOIt doesn't
Settles: Official result · closes Apr 1, 2027.
🎯Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be at least 2.0 but below 2.25?
YESIt happensNOIt doesn't
Settles: Official result · closes Apr 1, 2027.
🎯Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be at least 1.5 but below 2.0?decided · No
YESIt happensNOIt doesn't
Settles: Official result · closes Apr 1, 2027.
🎯Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be below 1.5?decided · No
YESIt happensNOIt doesn't
Settles: Official result · closes Apr 1, 2027.
Resolution rules
This market resolves based on the peak RONI — the single highest Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as published in official NOAA CPC RONI updates (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/). See each individual market for its bracket and full resolution terms. This market may resolve immediately once NOAA has published a RONI value that determines the peak: the "Over 2.5" outcome resolves "Yes" as soon as any listed season reaches +2.5°C or above. Any other outcome will not be confirmed until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value, since RONI can still rise in a later season and DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window. The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs resolution; no subsequent revision to a season's value will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published. If CPC's RONI dataset is permanently discontinued, other information from NOAA may be used.