Will the US economy be in a soft landing at the end of 2026?most traded
YESIt happensNOIt doesn't
Settles: Official result · closes Feb 1, 2027.
Economy · 4 markets
US economic state at the end of 2026?
Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%) leads at 74% (+1.5 pts in 24h), followed by Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%) 26% and Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%) 2%. $101K traded in total, $211 in the last 24 hours. Scheduled to resolve Feb 1, 2027.
Vol total$101K
Vol 24h$211
Liquidity$10K
Resolves113d
Your bet
Every card is one question. Tap Yes if you think it happens, No if you don't. Each button shows the chance the market gives it, what your $10 becomes if you're right (stake included), and the profit. Wrong = you lose your $10, never more. No is everything that isn't Yes.
Outcomes · most likely first4 questions
Will the US economy be overheating at the end of 2026?
YESIt happensNOIt doesn't
Settles: Official result · closes Feb 1, 2027.
Will the US economy be in stagflation at the end of 2026?decided · No
YESIt happensNOIt doesn't
Settles: Official result · closes Feb 1, 2027.
Will the US economy have slack at the end of 2026?decided · No
YESIt happensNOIt doesn't
Settles: Official result · closes Feb 1, 2027.
Resolution rules (source: Polymarket)
The unemployment rate is defined as the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force, denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release. The inflation rate is defined as the 12-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Consumer Price Index release. This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026. If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026. This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%. This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%. This market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%. This market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%. The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.