All events
Tech & AI · 21 markets

Third-best AI Lab end of September?

Vol total$42K
Vol 24h$1K
Liquidity$21K
Resolves42d

Outcomes · most likely first

🔍
Google
$21K vol·+11%·7d
28.5%
chance
Yes 28¢ · No 72¢
🛍️
Alibaba
$5K vol·-20%·7d
17.0%
chance
Yes 17¢ · No 83¢
👥
Meta
$2K vol·+21%·7d
37.0%
chance
Yes 37¢ · No 63¢
🧠
OpenAI
$1K vol·-2%·7d
8.0%
chance
Yes 8¢ · No 92¢
🔷
DeepSeek
$824 vol
2.6%
chance
Yes 3¢ · No 97¢
🔎
Baidu
$799 vol·+9%·7d
9.2%
chance
Yes 9¢ · No 91¢
🌙
Moonshot
$794 vol·-0%·7d
2.5%
chance
Yes 3¢ · No 97¢
🤖
Z.ai
$755 vol·+1%·7d
3.9%
chance
Yes 4¢ · No 96¢
🍜
Meituan
$922 vol
0.1%
chance
Yes 0¢ · No 100¢
🎯
Thinky
$809 vol·-0%·7d
0.7%
chance
Yes 1¢ · No 99¢
🚀
SpaceXAI
$774 vol·+0%·7d
0.6%
chance
Yes 1¢ · No 99¢
🪟
Microsoft
$765 vol·+0%·7d
0.4%
chance
Yes 0¢ · No 100¢
🇨🇳
Tencent
$752 vol·-0%·7d
0.1%
chance
Yes 0¢ · No 100¢
🇨🇳
MiniMax
$742 vol
0.1%
chance
Yes 0¢ · No 100¢
🤖
Anthropic
$720 vol·-1%·7d
1.5%
chance
Yes 2¢ · No 99¢
🟢
Nvidia
$702 vol
0.1%
chance
Yes 0¢ · No 100¢
📱
ByteDance
$666 vol·-0%·7d
0.2%
chance
Yes 0¢ · No 100¢
🌪️
Mistral
$655 vol
0.1%
chance
Yes 0¢ · No 100¢
📦
Amazon
$425 vol
0.1%
chance
Yes 0¢ · No 100¢
🇨🇳
StepFun
$421 vol
0.1%
chance
Yes 0¢ · No 100¢
🇨🇳
Xiaomi
$421 vol
0.1%
chance
Yes 0¢ · No 100¢

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market. AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".