All events
Tech & AI · 21 markets

Third-best AI Lab end of October?

Vol total$13K
Vol 24h$666
Liquidity$7K
Resolves71d

Outcomes · most likely first

🛍️
Alibaba
$4K vol
22.5%
chance
Yes 23¢ · No 78¢
🔍
Google
$3K vol·+7%·7d
31.5%
chance
Yes 32¢ · No 69¢
🇨🇳
MiniMax
$491 vol·-2%·7d
3.4%
chance
Yes 3¢ · No 97¢
👥
Meta
$471 vol·+6%·7d
23.0%
chance
Yes 23¢ · No 77¢
🌪️
Mistral
$459 vol·+2%·7d
2.6%
chance
Yes 3¢ · No 97¢
🇨🇳
Tencent
$454 vol·-3%·7d
5.0%
chance
Yes 5¢ · No 95¢
🇨🇳
Xiaomi
$440 vol·+3%·7d
5.3%
chance
Yes 5¢ · No 95¢
📱
ByteDance
$421 vol·+1%·7d
2.9%
chance
Yes 3¢ · No 97¢
🌙
Moonshot
$402 vol·-4%·7d
8.3%
chance
Yes 8¢ · No 92¢
🧠
OpenAI
$366 vol·+5%·7d
8.0%
chance
Yes 8¢ · No 92¢
🤖
Z.ai
$312 vol·-3%·7d
4.7%
chance
Yes 5¢ · No 95¢
🔎
Baidu
$266 vol·-6%·7d
3.5%
chance
Yes 4¢ · No 97¢
🤖
Anthropic
$264 vol·+3%·7d
4.8%
chance
Yes 5¢ · No 95¢
🍜
Meituan
$326 vol
0.5%
chance
Yes 1¢ · No 99¢
🪟
Microsoft
$307 vol·-0%·7d
0.1%
chance
Yes 0¢ · No 100¢
🟢
Nvidia
$306 vol
0.1%
chance
Yes 0¢ · No 100¢
🇨🇳
StepFun
$300 vol
0.1%
chance
Yes 0¢ · No 100¢
🔷
DeepSeek
$300 vol·-4%·7d
0.7%
chance
Yes 1¢ · No 99¢
📦
Amazon
$269 vol
0.5%
chance
Yes 1¢ · No 99¢
🚀
SpaceXAI
$264 vol·+0%·7d
0.7%
chance
Yes 1¢ · No 99¢
🎯
Thinky
$262 vol
0.5%
chance
Yes 1¢ · No 99¢

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".