All events
Tech & AI · 21 markets

Third-best AI Lab end of August?

Vol total$59K
Vol 24h$272
Liquidity$24K
Resolves13d

Outcomes · most likely first

👥
Meta
$13K vol·-45%·7d
11.0%
chance
Yes 11¢ · No 89¢
🔍
Google
$11K vol·+16%·7d
28.5%
chance
Yes 28¢ · No 72¢
🛍️
Alibaba
$7K vol·+28%·7d
47.5%
chance
Yes 48¢ · No 53¢
🤖
Anthropic
$3K vol·-1%·7d
0.5%
chance
Yes 1¢ · No 100¢
🧠
OpenAI
$3K vol·-4%·7d
1.8%
chance
Yes 2¢ · No 98¢
🌙
Moonshot
$3K vol·-2%·7d
0.5%
chance
Yes 1¢ · No 99¢
🔎
Baidu
$2K vol·+0%·7d
0.6%
chance
Yes 1¢ · No 99¢
🚀
SpaceXAI
$2K vol·-1%·7d
0.4%
chance
Yes 0¢ · No 100¢
🤖
Z.ai
$2K vol·-2%·7d
0.4%
chance
Yes 0¢ · No 100¢
🪟
Microsoft
$2K vol·-0%·7d
0.3%
chance
Yes 0¢ · No 100¢
🔷
DeepSeek
$2K vol·-1%·7d
0.1%
chance
Yes 0¢ · No 100¢
🇨🇳
Xiaomi
$1K vol
0.1%
chance
Yes 0¢ · No 100¢
🇨🇳
Tencent
$992 vol
0.1%
chance
Yes 0¢ · No 100¢
🇨🇳
MiniMax
$912 vol
0.1%
chance
Yes 0¢ · No 100¢
📱
ByteDance
$911 vol
0.1%
chance
Yes 0¢ · No 100¢
🟢
Nvidia
$706 vol
0.1%
chance
Yes 0¢ · No 100¢
🌪️
Mistral
$671 vol
0.1%
chance
Yes 0¢ · No 100¢
📦
Amazon
$659 vol
0.1%
chance
Yes 0¢ · No 100¢
🎯
Thinky
$504 vol
0.1%
chance
Yes 0¢ · No 100¢
🇨🇳
StepFun
$498 vol
0.1%
chance
Yes 0¢ · No 100¢
🍜
Meituan
$494 vol
0.1%
chance
Yes 0¢ · No 100¢

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market. AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".