Crypto · binary

SBF released from custody in 2026?

The market prices “Yes” at 2% (+0.9 pts in 24h). $468K traded in total, $3K in the last 24 hours. Scheduled to resolve Jan 1, 2027.

Vol total$468K

Vol 24h$3K

Liquidity$5K

Resolves79d

Your bet$

Every card is one question. Tap Yes if you think it happens, No if you don't. Each button shows the chance the market gives it, what your $10 becomes if you're right (stake included), and the profit. Wrong = you lose your $10, never more. No is everything that isn't Yes.

Outcomes · most likely first1 question

SBF released from custody in 2026?most traded

YESIt happensNOIt doesn't

Settles: Official result · closes Jan 1, 2027.

Resolution rules (source: Polymarket)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sam Bankman-Fried is released from custody by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Sam Bankman-Fried is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes". If Sam Bankman-Fried is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes". Transporting Sam Bankman-Fried to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.