All events
Politics · 36 markets

Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?

Vol total$86K
Vol 24h$918
Liquidity$578K
Resolves254d

Outcomes · most likely first

🇫🇷
Jordan Bardella
$18K vol·+4%·7d
12.0%
chance
Yes 12¢ · No 88¢
🇫🇷
Marine Le Pen
$9K vol·+2%·7d
87.0%
chance
Yes 87¢ · No 13¢
🇫🇷
Jean-Luc Mélenchon
$6K vol·+1%·7d
41.5%
chance
Yes 42¢ · No 59¢
🇫🇷
François Hollande
$5K vol·-2%·7d
6.0%
chance
Yes 6¢ · No 94¢
🇫🇷
François Ruffin
$5K vol
2.2%
chance
Yes 2¢ · No 98¢
🇫🇷
Élisabeth Borne
$3K vol·+1%·7d
3.7%
chance
Yes 4¢ · No 96¢
🇫🇷
David Lisnard
$2K vol
2.7%
chance
Yes 3¢ · No 97¢
🇫🇷
Gabriel Attal
$2K vol·-4%·7d
6.0%
chance
Yes 6¢ · No 94¢
🇫🇷
Yaël Braun-Pivet
$2K vol·+0%·7d
2.5%
chance
Yes 3¢ · No 97¢
🇫🇷
Bruno Retailleau
$2K vol·-0%·7d
3.2%
chance
Yes 3¢ · No 97¢
🇫🇷
Édouard Philippe
$2K vol·-10%·7d
52.0%
chance
Yes 52¢ · No 48¢
🇫🇷
Fabien Roussel
$1K vol·+0%·7d
4.0%
chance
Yes 4¢ · No 96¢
🇫🇷
Dominique de Villepin
$1K vol
4.0%
chance
Yes 4¢ · No 96¢
🇫🇷
Gérald Darmanin
$1K vol·-9%·7d
4.0%
chance
Yes 4¢ · No 96¢
🇫🇷
Mathilde Panot
$829 vol
3.3%
chance
Yes 3¢ · No 97¢
🇫🇷
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan
$643 vol·-1%·7d
3.4%
chance
Yes 3¢ · No 97¢
🇫🇷
Raphaël Glucksmann
$638 vol
5.5%
chance
Yes 6¢ · No 95¢
🇫🇷
Éric Zemmour
$631 vol·+0%·7d
3.2%
chance
Yes 3¢ · No 97¢
🇫🇷
Sébastien Lecornu
$466 vol·+2%·7d
6.2%
chance
Yes 6¢ · No 94¢
🇫🇷
Bernard Cazeneuve
$251 vol·-0%·7d
4.5%
chance
Yes 4¢ · No 96¢
🇫🇷
Olivier Faure
$129 vol·+1%·7d
4.7%
chance
Yes 5¢ · No 95¢
🇫🇷
Laurent Wauquiez
$58 vol·+3%·7d
6.2%
chance
Yes 6¢ · No 94¢
🇫🇷
François Bayrou
$42 vol·+8%·7d
10.7%
chance
Yes 11¢ · No 89¢
🇫🇷
Ségolène Royal
$3K vol·+0%·7d
1.1%
chance
Yes 1¢ · No 99¢
🇫🇷
Marine Tondelier
$3K vol·-0%·7d
0.3%
chance
Yes 0¢ · No 100¢
🇫🇷
Sarah Knafo
$3K vol·-1%·7d
0.7%
chance
Yes 1¢ · No 99¢
🇫🇷
Manuel Bompard
$2K vol·-0%·7d
1.8%
chance
Yes 2¢ · No 98¢
🇫🇷
François Asselineau
$2K vol
1.8%
chance
Yes 2¢ · No 98¢
🇫🇷
Clémence Guetté
$2K vol
0.3%
chance
Yes 0¢ · No 100¢
🇫🇷
Clémentine Autain
$2K vol
1.3%
chance
Yes 1¢ · No 99¢
🇫🇷
Xavier Bertrand
$2K vol
1.1%
chance
Yes 1¢ · No 99¢
🇫🇷
Valérie Pécresse
$1K vol
0.8%
chance
Yes 1¢ · No 99¢
🇫🇷
Jean Castex
$1K vol
0.9%
chance
Yes 1¢ · No 99¢
🇫🇷
Juan Branco
$1K vol·+0%·7d
1.6%
chance
Yes 2¢ · No 98¢
🇫🇷
Carole Delga
$1K vol
1.7%
chance
Yes 2¢ · No 98¢
🇫🇷
Michel Barnier
$1K vol·-1%·7d
1.5%
chance
Yes 2¢ · No 99¢

Resolution rules

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff second round. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to the second round of the next French presidential election or wins the election outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no such election occurs or the results of the first round of this election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).