Climate · binary

Natural Disaster in 2026?

The market prices “Yes” at 9% (+2.0 pts in 24h). $248K traded in total, $446 in the last 24 hours. Scheduled to resolve Mar 1, 2027.

Vol total$248K

Vol 24h$446

Liquidity$981

Resolves141d

Your bet$

Every card is one question. Tap Yes if you think it happens, No if you don't. Each button shows the chance the market gives it, what your $10 becomes if you're right (stake included), and the profit. Wrong = you lose your $10, never more. No is everything that isn't Yes.

Outcomes · most likely first1 question

Natural Disaster in 2026?most traded

YESIt happensNOIt doesn't

Settles: Official result · closes Mar 1, 2027.

Resolution rules (source: Polymarket)

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET: - A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US - A major meteor strikes (10kt+) - A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6) - An 8.5+ earthquake occurs Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf