Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?most traded
YESIt happensNOIt doesn't
Settles: Official result · closes Mar 1, 2027.
Climate · binary
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?
The market prices “Yes” at 5% (−2.0 pts in 24h). $209K traded in total, $804 in the last 24 hours. Scheduled to resolve Mar 1, 2027, per cneos.jpl.nasa.gov.
Vol total$209K
Vol 24h$804
Liquidity$2K
Resolves141d
Your bet
Every card is one question. Tap Yes if you think it happens, No if you don't. Each button shows the chance the market gives it, what your $10 becomes if you're right (stake included), and the profit. Wrong = you lose your $10, never more. No is everything that isn't Yes.
Outcomes · most likely first1 question
Resolution rules (source: Polymarket)
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify. The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.