Crypto · Ends Jan 1

Major CEX insolvent in 2026?

The market gives “Yes” a 3% chance (down 0.2 points in 24 hours).

What do you think?

Yes = it happens · No = it doesn't

3%chance of Yes, according to the market

Your money, explained

Put $10 on Yes at 3% → if it happens you get $312.50 (+$302.50). If it doesn't, you lose the $10 — never more. You can sell any time before it ends, at that moment's price.

How it's decided

It's settled by the official result when the question closes on Jan 1, 2027, US Eastern time.

Full rules (source: Polymarket)This market will resolve to “Yes” if official information released by any of the following major centralized exchanges: Binance, Coinbase, Bybit, OKX, or Kraken, official representatives of such exchange (e.g. lawyers, spokespeople, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting announces by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET that the exchange is insolvent or is filing/has filed for any variety of bankruptcy. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

$137K traded since it opened · $1K today