Iran nuclear test before 2027?most traded
YESIt happensNOIt doesn't
Settles: Official result · closes Jan 1, 2027.
Politics · binary
Iran nuclear test before 2027?
The market prices “Yes” at 4% (+0.6 pts in 24h). $270K traded in total, $3K in the last 24 hours. Scheduled to resolve Jan 1, 2027.
Vol total$270K
Vol 24h$3K
Liquidity$77K
Resolves83d
Your bet
Every card is one question. Tap Yes if you think it happens, No if you don't. Each button shows the chance the market gives it, what your $10 becomes if you're right (stake included), and the profit. Wrong = you lose your $10, never more. No is everything that isn't Yes.
Outcomes · most likely first1 question
Resolution rules (source: Polymarket)
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield. Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution. Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran. The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.