Politics · 7 markets
Iran leadership change by...?
Vol total$23.7M
Vol 24h$18K
Liquidity$648K
Resolves134d
Outcomes · most likely first
🎆
December 31
$4.0M vol·-3%·7d
15.5%
chance
Yes 16¢ · No 85¢
🍂
September 30
$467K vol·-2%·7d
4.5%
chance
Yes 5¢ · No 96¢
🎯
June 30, 2027
$244K vol·-7%·7d
25.5%
chance
Yes 26¢ · No 75¢
🎃
October 31
$20K vol·-3%·7d
7.5%
chance
Yes 8¢ · No 93¢
🎯
November 30
$18K vol·-5%·7d
9.5%
chance
Yes 10¢ · No 91¢
🎯
August 31
$1.2M vol·-2%·7d
1.0%
chance
Yes 1¢ · No 99¢
🎯
August 22
$66K vol·-1%·7d
0.1%
chance
Yes 0¢ · No 100¢
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.