Politics · 4 markets

Iran leadership change by...?

Vol total$26.7M

Vol 24h$81K

Liquidity$473K

Resolves271d

Your bet$

Every card is one question. Tap Yes if you think it happens, No if you don't. Each button shows the chance the market gives it, what your $10 becomes if you're right (stake included), and the profit. Wrong = you lose your $10, never more. No is everything that isn't Yes.

Outcomes · most likely first4 questions

Iran leadership change by December 31?most traded

YESIt happensNOIt doesn't

Settles: Official result · closes Jan 1, 2027.

Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027?

YESIt happensNOIt doesn't

Settles: Official result · closes Jul 1, 2027.

Iran leadership change by November 30?

YESIt happensNOIt doesn't

Settles: Official result · closes Dec 1, 2026.

Iran leadership change by October 31?decided · No

YESIt happensNOIt doesn't

Settles: Official result · closes Nov 1, 2026.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.