Iran coup attempt by December 31, 2026?most traded
YESIt happensNOIt doesn't
Settles: Official result · closes Jan 1, 2027.
Politics · 2 markets
Iran coup attempt by...?
Highest odds: December 31, 2027 at 28%, then December 31, 2026 12%. $2.1M traded in total, $730 in the last 24 hours. Scheduled to resolve Jan 1, 2027.
Vol total$2.1M
Vol 24h$730
Liquidity$32K
Resolves83d
Your bet
Every card is one question. Tap Yes if you think it happens, No if you don't. Each button shows the chance the market gives it, what your $10 becomes if you're right (stake included), and the profit. Wrong = you lose your $10, never more. No is everything that isn't Yes.
Outcomes · most likely first2 questions
Iran coup attempt by December 31, 2027?
YESIt happensNOIt doesn't
Settles: Official result · closes Jan 1, 2028.
Resolution rules (source: Polymarket)
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify. Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.