Politics · 15 markets

How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

Highest odds: Below 4.7% at 16%, then Below 4.6% 6% and Below 4.5% 5%. $354K traded in total, $3K in the last 24 hours. Scheduled to resolve Jan 1, 2027, per home.treasury.gov.

Vol total$354K

Vol 24h$3K

Liquidity$107K

Resolves80d

Your bet$

Every card is one question. Tap Yes if you think it happens, No if you don't. Each button shows the chance the market gives it, what your $10 becomes if you're right (stake included), and the profit. Wrong = you lose your $10, never more. No is everything that isn't Yes.

Outcomes · most likely first15 questions

Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.9% before 2027?

YESIt happensNOIt doesn't

Settles: Official result · closes Dec 31, 2026.

Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.1% before 2027?

YESIt happensNOIt doesn't

Settles: Official result · closes Dec 31, 2026.

Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.5% before 2027?

YESIt happensNOIt doesn't

Settles: Official result · closes Dec 31, 2026.

Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.4% before 2027?

YESIt happensNOIt doesn't

Settles: Official result · closes Dec 31, 2026.

Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.6% before 2027?

YESIt happensNOIt doesn't

Settles: Official result · closes Dec 31, 2026.

Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.7% before 2027?

YESIt happensNOIt doesn't

Settles: Official result · closes Dec 31, 2026.

Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.2% before 2027?

YESIt happensNOIt doesn't

Settles: Official result · closes Dec 31, 2026.

Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.3% before 2027?

YESIt happensNOIt doesn't

Settles: Official result · closes Dec 31, 2026.

Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.8% before 2027?decided · No

YESIt happensNOIt doesn't

Settles: Official result · closes Dec 31, 2026.

Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.5% before 2027?decided · No

YESIt happensNOIt doesn't

Settles: Official result · closes Dec 31, 2026.

Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 1.0% before 2027?decided · No

YESIt happensNOIt doesn't

Settles: Official result · closes Dec 31, 2026.

Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.7% before 2027?decided · No

YESIt happensNOIt doesn't

Settles: Official result · closes Dec 31, 2026.

Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.6% before 2027?decided · No

YESIt happensNOIt doesn't

Settles: Official result · closes Dec 31, 2026.

Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.0% before 2027?decided · No

YESIt happensNOIt doesn't

Settles: Official result · closes Dec 31, 2026.

Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 2.0% before 2027?decided · No

YESIt happensNOIt doesn't

Settles: Official result · closes Dec 31, 2026.

Resolution rules (source: Polymarket)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time. The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).