How high will 10-year Treasury yield go in 2025?
Resolved: 4.5% · Dec 31, 2025
$5.9M traded over the life of the market. Resolution source: the rules below.
| Outcome | Odds 24h before close | Settled |
|---|---|---|
| 4.5% | 100% | Won · 100% |
| 4.8% | <1% | 0% |
| 4.6% | <1% | 0% |
| 5.2% | <1% | 0% |
| 5.0% | <1% | 0% |
| 5.7% | <1% | 0% |
| 5.5% | <1% | 0% |
| 6.0% | <1% | 0% |
Resolution rules (source: Polymarket)
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between April 9 and December 31, 2025. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).