China coup attempt before 2027?most traded
YESIt happensNOIt doesn't
Settles: Official result · closes Jan 1, 2027.
Politics · 2 markets
China coup attempt by...?
Highest odds: December 31, 2027 at 27%, then December 31, 2026 4%. $163K traded in total, $559 in the last 24 hours. Scheduled to resolve Jan 1, 2028.
Vol total$163K
Vol 24h$559
Liquidity$53K
Resolves449d
Your bet
Every card is one question. Tap Yes if you think it happens, No if you don't. Each button shows the chance the market gives it, what your $10 becomes if you're right (stake included), and the profit. Wrong = you lose your $10, never more. No is everything that isn't Yes.
Outcomes · most likely first2 questions
China coup attempt before 2028?
YESIt happensNOIt doesn't
Settles: Official result · closes Jan 1, 2028.
Resolution rules (source: Polymarket)
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify. Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.