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Politics · 10 markets

China Annual GDP Growth 2026

Vol total$880K
Vol 24h$80
Liquidity$123K
Resolves0d

Outcomes · most likely first

🎯
4.0–5.0%
$220K vol
88.5%
chance
Yes 89¢ · No 12¢
🎯
5.0–6.0%
$80K vol·-4%·7d
6.7%
chance
Yes 7¢ · No 93¢
🎯
9.0%+
$116K vol
0.1%
chance
Yes 0¢ · No 100¢
🎯
6.0-7.0%
$84K vol·-0%·7d
0.1%
chance
Yes 0¢ · No 100¢
🎯
3.0–4.0%
$81K vol
1.1%
chance
Yes 1¢ · No 99¢
🎯
1.0–2.0%
$74K vol
0.1%
chance
Yes 0¢ · No 100¢
📊
<1.0%
$65K vol
0.1%
chance
Yes 0¢ · No 100¢
🎯
7.0–8.0%
$63K vol
0.1%
chance
Yes 0¢ · No 100¢
🎯
8.0–9.0%
$53K vol·+0%·7d
0.7%
chance
Yes 1¢ · No 99¢
🎯
2.0–3.0%
$45K vol
0.1%
chance
Yes 0¢ · No 100¢

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027. The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.